With 2025 underway, now’s the perfect time to dust off our crystal ball and look ahead to some of the trends that will shape the future of programmatic advertising. Novatiq’s programmatic advertising future forecast covers some of the biggest themes affecting the industry, including adtech antitrust cases, privacy concerns, and, of course, the impact of AI. Enjoy the read.
1. The third-party cookie will crumble
One of the biggest news stories of last year was Google’s decision to roll back on third-party cookie deprecation in Chrome. However, fast from being a reprieve for the invasive tracker, we believe that once Google implements its opt-in mechanism for third-party cookies they will cease to be an effective tool for digital advertising (indeed, given their dire match rates there’s a good argument that this has already happened).
The fact is that consumers don’t like being tracked, and when given the option the majority favour their privacy. We know this because that’s exactly what happened when Apple made its ID for Advertisers opt-in back in 2021 (now at just 14%, opt-in rates for the IDFA continue to decline). The future of programmatic is, therefore, not the tracking cookie. Instead, we can expect to see first-party cookies continue to rise in importance as advertisers look to leverage consented brand and publisher customer data for privacy-first programmatic advertising.
2. The fragmentation of adtech will gather pace
In recent years, adtech has become increasingly fragmented due to factors such as privacy regulations, the rise of walled gardens, and the shift away from tracking cookies. This trend will gather pace if, as is possible, Google’s monopoly over the adtech industry comes to an end. The tech giant is currently awaiting a decision on whether the Department of Justice’s (DoJ) case that it is a monopolist has been upheld. Depending on the outcome of this case, and the action taken as a result, the future of programmatic could look very different.
If the DoJ’s case is upheld, then it’s possible that Google will either have to sell off parts of its adtech business or open up its stack to third parties. Either way, the effect will be to increase competition within the adtech ecosystem. This in turn will likely improve price points for publishers (which will hopefully carry through to advertisers). It would also encourage innovation, which in turn could help drive growth and even encourage more efficient and sustainable technologies and processes.
3. Regulatory oversight will increase
The future of programmatic advertising will to a large degree be shaped by regulators. Already, 160 countries have enacted data privacy laws globally, and we can expect this number to continue to increase. There will be two likely impacts. First, we will no doubt see more major fines levied against platforms, publishers, and brands that misuse personal data in their marketing campaigns.
Second, the loss of advertising signals currently impacting the industry will accelerate as invasive technologies and processes are withdrawn and alternatives are not necessarily delivering at scale (indeed, research suggests that authenticated signals are already too low to be of much use to advertisers). These pressures will drive a golden age for privacy-first alternatives, as publishers and advertisers put in place compliant and future-proof identifiers to power their programmatic campaigns.
4. Telcos will carve out a niche in the programmatic ecosystem
As the programmatic advertising future unfolds, a new market entrant will play an increasingly central role in meeting the challenge of securing user consent for advertising IDs and implementing ID mechanisms in a way that is both transparent and straightforward.
Leveraging their unmatched first-party data and network intelligence, telcos will become identity verification hubs for the programmatic industry. Indeed, first movers are already making a play in this space, with initiatives from the likes of MTN in South Africa, which has introduced its own verified IDs to provide privacy-first, addressable audiences and seamless user recognition for publishers and brands. Given their privacy credentials, accuracy, and interoperability, telco-verified IDs will be central to the future programmatic advertising industry, and telcos central to the smooth functioning of the industry.
5. AI models will need to embrace sustainability and privacy
There seems to be no escaping the onward rush of AI into programmatic advertising. Indeed, around the world many brands and agencies are beginning to find successes in using AI to enhance the targeting, performance, and personalisation of programmatic ads.
However, as the use of AI gathers momentum, two things will need to be addressed. First, is sustainability. AI models and the required supporting infrastructure use a vast amount of compute resources and power. This runs contrary to the advertising industry’s commitment to achieving net zero carbon emissions and will need to be addressed in the years ahead.
Second, we can expect to see privacy issues come under more scrutiny, especially when it comes to gaining clarity over whether personal data has been used to train AI models. As the programmatic industry adopts AI, we can therefore expect to see the introduction of robust privacy standards, and a requirement for models to respect consumer protection and data privacy laws.
The year ahead
As we step into 2025, it’s clear that the digital advertising ecosystem is poised for another transformative year. Privacy, AI, and regulatory actions will remain central themes, shaping the strategies and priorities of brands across the globe. Success will come to those that not only embrace these changes but lead with privacy-first practices, building trust and engaging audiences in a compliant and innovative way.
